Decision time approaches for Walrus class submarine replacement

Walrus class submarine replacement
Decommissioning ceremony for first-in-class submarine "Walrus" in October 2023. Dutch Ministry of Defence picture.
The major talking point at the recent NEDS 2023 exhibition in Rotterdam was the Netherlands’ pending decision on the Walrus class submarine replacement programme. 
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Naval Group, Saab and ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems were in December 2019 shortlisted to compete to supply four boats to replace the Royal Netherlands Navy (RNLN)’s four ageing Walrus-class submarines. Naval Group is offering a conventional variant of its Barracuda design; Saab’s business area Kockums, teamed with Damen, is proposing an enlarged expeditionary derivative of the A26 submarine being built for the Royal Swedish Navy; and ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems has bid an evolved ‘Expeditionary’ variant of the Class 212CD design already ordered by Germany and Norway.

The Netherlands Ministry of Defence initially commenced a competitive negotiation procedure with the three companies, with the intention that this would lead to a contract signing with a single bidder before the end of 2022. Planning at this stage assumed that at least two new submarines would be fully operational by the end of 2031.

Walrus class submarine replacement
Image showing the three competing designs: From top to bottom: TKMS, Naval Group and Saab Damen.

However, the protracted nature of the dialogue process, and the amount of resource needed to evaluate deliverables sought from industry, saw the programme schedule slip. In early 2022 the Ministry of Defence took the decision to abandon the competitive dialogue, spilt the procurement and maintenance elements of the requirement, and adopt a new procurement model based on a competitive request for quotation (RFQ).

The Ministry of Defence issued RFQs to the three bidders on 16 November 2022. Responses were received at the end of July 2023. Since then, a detailed evaluation has been underway to assess the bid proposals at both a technical and commercial level: external bodies, notably MARIN and TNO, have provided expert support to validate performance claims.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate has conducted separate discussions with the candidate yards on the establishment of an industrial cooperation agreement (ICA). The evaluation of the draft ICAs will be presented to the Ministerial Committee on Submarine Replacement concurrent with the presentation of the Ministry of Defence’s draft provisional award decision.

Industry expects a decision on a preferred contractor to become public before the end of Q1 2024.

Delays to the procurement programme mean that the first two replacement submarines are not now expected to enter service until the 2034–37 timeframe. In order to maintain a viable submarine capability until the introduction of the new class, the RNLN will have to continue operating Walrus class submarines into the mid-2030s. To achieve this, a decision has been taken to halve the legacy fleet, and use parts from the two decommissioned boats to keep the other two in service. HNLMS Walrus, the first boat to be taken out of service, was officially decommissioned on 12 October 2023.

While the rival industry groups are not at liberty to release deep technical and performance characteristics of the respective proposals for the Walrus class replacement programme, all three have offered Naval News top-level insights on where they see their key strengths and differentiators.

This story will be updated over the coming days with a detailed overview of each of the three proposals…

Saab – Damen Offering C718 Submarine To The Netherlands:

Naval Group Offering Barracuda Family Submarine To The Netherlands

thyssenkrupp Marine Systems Offering Type 212CD E Submarine To The Netherlands

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