As part of the government’s long-awaited response to a surface fleet review commissioned last year, Marles said, Australia will build a new fleet of “Tier 2” warships which will complement a smaller number of “Tier 1” combatants. This decision, he said, will see the size of the surface fleet more than double by the mid-2040s.
In total Australia will build 17 new “Tier 2” combatants under the plan. The mainstay of this force will be 11 general purpose guided missile frigates, able to perform air-defence, land-strike and escort missions. While eight of these vessels will be built in Western Australia, the first three will be built overseas, in Spain, Germany, Korea or Japan to enable delivery before the end of the decade. Designs from these four countries have been shortlisted for the requirement according to Minister Marles, with the final selection to be made next year. Four platforms have been identified by the independent analysis as exemplars to form the basis of a selection process for this new general purpose frigate:
- Meko A-200
- Mogami 30FFM
- Daegu class FFX Batch II and III
- Navantia ALFA3000
The rest of the “Tier 2” force will be made up of six “optionally crewed” large surface vessels, built in Western Australia and based on work underway in the United States on large-unmanned surface combatants, that will “significantly enhance” the RANs long-range strike capabilities. According to the review, they’ll be armed at least 32 vertical launch systems, and equipped with the AEGIS combat system.
These will be complemented by nine “Tier 1” combatants, including six Hunter class frigates and three Hobart class air warfare destroyers, as well as a fleet of 25 “minor war vessels” including six Arafura class OPVs and up-to 19 Evolved Cape Class Patrol boats. The first Hunter will now be delivered to the RAN in 2032, with the final vessel delivered in the early-2040s, at that time the shipyard in Adelaide will “immediately” begin work on replacements for the Hobart class.
In the shorter term, the two oldest Anzac class frigates; HMAS Anzac and HMAS Arunta will be decommissioned early, with HMAS Anzac to be decommissioned this year and Arunta in 2026. The remaining six Anzac class frigates will also no longer undergo comprehensive “Transcap” upgrades. Instead, they’ll be upgraded with unspecified “enhanced maritime strike” capabilities. Cancelling the TransCap upgrade and retiring Anzac and Arunta is expected to free up much needed-funding in the short-to-medium term.
How to pay for it?
The government is investing an additional $11 billion AUD into the fleet over the next decade, with $1.7 billion flowing in initially over the next three years, however, offsets have been found in other programs to help pay for the expanded fleet. The government has slashed the number of Hunter class frigates being built in South Australia from nine to six, after the review found that the cost to build all of the planned frigates had grown to $65 billion AUD (~$42 billion USD) up from $45 billion AUD. The troubled $3.96 billion AUD (~$2.5 billion USD) Arafura class Offshore Patrol Vessel program (OPV), which finally launched ship number two late last year, is also on the chopping block with the program cut from 12 to just 6 ships.
While cuts to both programs will undoubtedly result in some savings, it’s not clear if they will be delivered in a useful time frame for the money to be reinvested into the immediate priority of constructing a “Tier 2” fleet. In the case of the Hunter class program, only the final three ships, not the initial six, have been cancelled meaning that major savings, bar long-lead items, will not be realised until well into the next-decade.
People a Problem
Workforce challenges, both in the defence industry and RAN, have the potential to derail the government’s plans for the new fleet before it even gets off the ground. In Western Australia, where eight of the new “Tier 2” small warships will be built, military shipbuilders have struggled to attract and retain talent in the face of tough competition from the state’s mining industry, which has led to a litany of delays across multiple programs according to the Australian National Audit Office.
The Hunter class program has also struggled with workforce issues in South Australia in the past, and will soon need to compete with not only the private sector, but whichever company is selected to build Australia’s SSN-AUKUS submarines there.
On the Defence side, the RAN is under-strength and consistently missing recruiting targets, leading to a year-on-year decline in active personnel numbers. Worst, according to testimony by the Chief of Navy Vice Admiral Mark Hammond in front of the Senate last week, it’s overwhelmingly skilled technical personnel who are leaving, creating workforce challenges.
Even though the new “Tier 2” warships will probably require less crew then the Anzac class, there will be more of them, and critical technical skills will no-doubt still be in high-demand across the wider fleet, putting immense pressure on the Navy workforce at the same time as the AUKUS effort ramps up.
A Difficult Path Ahead
While the government’s response to the review sounds good on paper, implementation is another beast. Successive Australian governments have struggled to manage shipbuilding projects, with reform and change promised, but rarely delivered. Now, due to these failures and delays, the RAN is operating the oldest fleet it has ever had in its history, at a time where demands on the service continue to increase and the strategic environment continues to deteriorate.
