Pletenchuk mentioned that “all submarines are in the Azov-Black Sea region,” and that two of them were spotted in the Black Sea on July 29. He added ironically that “sometimes the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation is called a submarine, and now it looks like this is true.”
Surface forces in retreat
The fact is that the activities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s surface forces have been marginalized in the face of the risk of damage or even destruction. As a result of kamikaze drone attacks (e.g., Magura V5 or newer), Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles, ATACMS ballistic missiles or anti-ship missiles, several valuable vessels were sunk or put out of action for a long time. This caused the withdrawal of the most important ships from the naval base in Sevastopol, which were directed to Novorossiysk and ports in the Sea of Azov.
Also, ships being built or outfitted at the Shipyard Butomy (formerly Zaliv) in Kerch in seized Crimea are being towed to the Baltic for completion and sea trials. This comes on the heels of the successful attack on the missile ship (corvette) Askold of project 22800 Karakurt at the Zaliv shipyard in November 2023. More recently, on July 25, the patrol ship Viktor Velikiy of project 22160 arrived in St. Petersburg. It is the fifth vessel of its class built in Zelonodolsk, Tatarstan, but equipped in Crimea. The ship was diverted to the Baltic Sea for safety reasons.
The Russians have already lost OPV of this class. On March 5, a Ukrainian drone sank the patrol ship Sergey Kotov in the Kerch area. The Black Sea has not been a safe place for Russian surface forces for a long time. Recently, Russian ships have even been spotted in the Caspian Sea, where they have made their way from the Black Sea to complete sea trials safely before entering service. The vessels in question are two new Karakurts, the Amur and the Tucha.
The Russians have no concept of solving the problem of their surface fleet in the face of Ukraine’s asymmetric response. In these realities, it is not surprising that they are trying to exploit the potential of their submarines. Currently, Ukraine does not have the technical means to detect and destroy submerged submarines, so their actions will go unpunished. The problem is that Russian submarines in the Black Sea are firing cruise missiles against targets in Ukraine.
Submarines with cruise missiles in war against Ukraine
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has six Project 636.3 Varshavyanka (NATO: Improved Kilo) submarines, which belong to the 4th Independent Submarine Brigade. One of them – the B-237 Rostov-on-Don – was severely damaged in September 2023 by a Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missile fired from a Ukrainian Su-24 tactical bomber. Two others were operating in the Mediterranean at the outbreak of war and did not make it back to the Black Sea. They are the B-261 Novorossiysk and the B-265 Krasnodar. Currently, one of them – Krasnodar – is in the Baltic Sea. Thus, in the Black Sea the Russians have three Improved Kilos.
The Kilos are armed with six 533mm launchers. They are used to launch heavyweight torpedoes, 3M54 anti-ship missiles, 3M14 cruise missiles and laying bottom mines. Each Varshavyanka can take between 4 and 8 (sources give different figures) 3M14 missiles of the Kalibr-PL system with a range of more than 2,000 km.
In addition to them, there is another submarine – B-871 Alrosa – of project 877W Paltus (Kilo). It’s a pump-jet propulsor test platform, but in mid-2022 Alrosa completed an overhaul and modernization. Submarine was reportedly integrated with the Kalibr-PL system during its course.
On July 28, during a celebration of the Russian Navy Day, it’s spokesman reported that the Black Sea Fleet’s surface ships and submarines destroyed over 200 targets in Ukraine with Kalibr missiles during this war. It is unclear whether this is true, as the Ukrainians claim to have shot down most of the cruise missiles (airborne X-101 and naval Kalibr).
