China unveiled its AJX002 underwater minelaying drone, signalling a significant expansion and modernization of its capabilities. The dedicated platform enhances blockade potential, particularly around Taiwan, raising strategic concerns as its covert, almost deniable nature increases the likelihood that China will use naval mines.
China revealed its AJX002 minelaying underwater drone at the recent military parade in Beijing. Our initial assessment, shared before the parade held water. With the clarity of the parade, and better images, we can start to take stock what it means.
The AJX002 was described in the official commentary as a mine laying system (无人布雷系统). Having this dedicated platform doesn’t just change the ways China can lay mines, it also makes it more likely that they will.
The role of offensive minelaying in blockade scenarios of Taiwan has been gaining traction among analysts. Indeed, the official commentary of the parade noted that the uncrewed systems on display, both surface and subsurface, “feature covert emplacement for blockade”. The new knowledge that China now has a discrete platform which, unlike a submarine, doesn’t require to sacrifice other missions to be employed as a minelayer, will only increase the anxiety of planners. China is modernizing its minelaying capabilities and in so doing, is more likely to deploy them.
AJX002 – The Unseen Minelayer
The AJX002 is in a category of underwater drones loosely categorized as extra-large (XLUUV). We can estimate, based on its size and the performance of relevant types, that it likely has a range of around 1,000 nautical miles (1,800km), but possibly significantly more. This is based on around half its hull being given over to lithium based batteries. A comparison can be made with the Norwegian HUGIN Endurance design which is a similar diameter but only half the length, and boasts a 1,200 nautical mile range.
The vehicle has a simple cylindrical construction. There are, except for a small obstacle avoidance sonar in the nose, no signs of sensors with which to detect an enemy ship. Unlike the slightly larger HSU100 XLUUV which was also on display, there is no flank sonar array.
There is only a small dome part-way along its back. This might be the tip of a mast mounted sensor but if so, it’s curious that it wasn’t raised for the parade (as the masts of the HSU100 were). So this small dome is more likely a communications antenna which needs the vessel to be on the surface to pick up a signal. Thus the vessel is not something which hunts its prey, it is rather a basic transport of sorts. Instead, its payload is the intelligent weapon.
Deep Sea Mining
The AJX002 is an unusual design in other ways too. Outwardly torpedo-like, it has an exceptionally high length-to-beam ratio, around 15:1. This makes it considerably more slender than any submarine or torpedo. At the same time there are no signs of control surfaces or thrusters at the front end. Combined with its basic cruciform tail arrangement, this all suggests that it is far from agile. Its turning radius is likely in the hundreds of meters, and it cannot hover or hold position. This implies that its accuracy over seabed is likely poor, at least in terms of navigating in confined spaces.
So, while we are sure that it is a minelayer, it does not seem to be the sort of vehicle you’d chose to attack inside an enemy port. It is too large, too cumbersome and unable to negotiate complex routes with ports. Therefore its payload, we can deduce, is something which can be laid way beyond the harbor walls.
China has a range of sea mines already in inventory, and is able to build new designs. These include rocket propelled riding mines which can be laid in much deeper water than traditional sea bottom mines. And it has the technology to make torpedo armed mines which have the same quality. A possible payload, labelled AQS003A, was also displayed during the parade but it is unclear whether it is torpedo armed, or a new rocket-rising type. It is however reasonable to suppose that the AJX002 is likely armed with a deep water mine, either of a torpedo or rocket rising type.
Outlook
China has a number of other extra-large underwater drones. At the parade the HSU100 was displayed, but there are others we know of through open source intelligence and satellite imagery. One seen early this year on a road in China is much shorter but also larger in diameter. That one, although under wraps, is most likely a torpedo armed vessel. And there is a full sized submarine which is believed to be an uncrewed platform. If correct it is ginormous and by far the largest XLUUV in existence.
China is not waiting for the West to develop XLUUVs to see how the technology translates into war fighting capabilities. It is at the forefront of the weaponization of this technology and is investing in both breadth of types and depth of inventory. No other country is coming close, not even the United States.
In a future war with Taiwan, whether a ‘grey zone’ soft blockade, a full on blockade or outright invasion, mine laying will likely play an important role in the Chinese strategy. The AJX002 will bring new dimensions to that, adding a covert, almost deniable, means to sow minefields around the island, and potentially further afield.
