The Russian submarine Novorossiysk, an Improved Kilo-class vessel, has been forced to limp home to the Baltic after a mechanical failure in the Mediterranean. While some reports exaggerated its plight, the incident exposes the Russian Navy’s declining presence in the region. Since losing its Syrian base at Tartus in 2024 and facing restrictions on movement through the Bosporus, Russia’s Mediterranean task force has largely collapsed. The Novorossiysk’s troubles highlight mounting maintenance issues and the broader erosion of Moscow’s naval reach in the Mediterranean.
The saga of the Russian Navy submarine Novorossiysk has captured headlines, and even mocking remarks from officials. NATO chief Mark Rutte summed it up, commenting that the “broken Russian submarine” was “limping home from patrol“. The submarine, a Pr.636.3 Improved Kilo class boat, has been transiting back from the Mediterranean to the Baltic since the start of the month.
The submarine reportedly suffered a mechanical failure in the Western Mediterranean in late September and has since been returning home on the surface.
That it is surfaced is not in itself unusual however. Russian Kilos have been making this journey in this fashion for years. And it did not suddenly surface off France in any literal sense, despite clickable headlines. Nautical puns aside, much that has been written about its is exaggeration and speculation. It’s another case of ‘wishful sinking’. Yet its woes do point to a much deeper submarine problem for the Russian Navy.
Russia’s Permanent Task Force In The Mediterranean
The Russian Navy established a ‘permanent task force’ in 2013. Submarines, together with frigates and larger warships were based at Tartus in Syria. The submarine component was often forward deployed from the nearby Black Sea Fleet. This was despite the Montreux convention which restricts submarines from deploying between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. In practice Russia was able to bend the interpretation of maintenance voyages to get around these restrictions.
The base at Tartus had enough facilities for submarines to rotate through there for up to a year at a time. An all-important repair ship, PM-82, was based there for extended periods to provide local maintenance support. By 2022 there were regularly two or more submarines at Tartus, with two there at the beginning of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Things were not to go smoothly however. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine resulted in Turkey closing the Bosporus to Russian Navy warships and submarines. Together with a ban on Russian warships visiting Cyprus, which had previously supplied refueling and maintenance services, this was a major blow to the Russian presence in the Mediterranean.
Russian Foothold in Med Massively Weakened
Then in March 2024 the Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) threat in the Black Sea forced the rerouting of supply ships from the shorter Black Sea route to the much longer Baltic one. But the biggest blow came when in December 2024 with the sudden fall of the Assad regime in Syria. This led to the Russian Navy being evicted from Tartus. The submarine Novorossiysk was one of the first vessels to leave, passing through the Strait of Gibraltar on January 2nd 2025.
Since losing Syria Russia has found it increasingly difficult to maintain a submarine presence in the Mediterranean. Deployments now have to sail from the Baltic, a 4,000 km voyage at the beginning and end of each deployment. This has limited their time in the Mediterranean, and no doubt taxes crews and stretches maintenance schedules.
Submarine Patrols Continue, But Weaker
Novorossiysk returned to the Mediterranean, accompanied by a support tug, in late June 2025. Naval News has information that she called at ports in North Africa, and likely received specialist maintenance on at least one occassion. But the vital support network of local basing is lacking.
Meanwhile Russia’s submarine fleet, particularly the diesel-electric Kilos, appear to be suffering from a maintenance backlog. This affects the remaining boats in the Black Sea (one, Rostov-on-Don, was written off by repeated missile strikes), as well as those in the Baltic. So despite having a fleet of over 10 boats, there is no immediate replacement for illfated Novorossiysk.
Russia can still deploy nuclear powered submarines there, which can sail submerged the whole way and arrive unannounced. It is known that Yasen (aka Severodvinsk) class cruise missile boats have occasionally ventured into the Mediterranean since 2022. But these too are also stretched, and it almost certainly isn’t a permanent presence.
Will Russia Return To The Mediterranean?
The submarine deployments now appear more for show than a meaningful naval capability. But Russia is likely to be intending to reestablish a base in there to allow a more potent force to be based there, tying up resources on NATO’s southern flank. The base may be in Libya, with Tobruk being the obvious candidate.
Any new base will take time to establish, with some degree of building work likely needed. Possibly the first sign will be Russian government cargo ships calling at the port, or repair ships sailing from the Baltic. In the meantime it appears that Novorossiysk will take some time to replace on station in the Mediterranean, with no sign of another Kilo sailing south.
Russia’s submarine forces should not be underestimated, especially the latest nuclear powered boats. But the Kilos are showing their limitations, and Russia has lost any sense of permanence in the Mediterranean. It’s not just the tale of one unfortunate submarine, it’s a growing hole in capacity and capability.
