Recent naval deployments and exercises undertaken by the Russian Navy suggest that Russia has started escorting commercial vessels in earnest. The escort action could be a direct response of Russia against mounting western sanctions that increasingly targets Russia’s fleet of aging and often uninsured tankers, better known as the Shadow Fleet. These tankers are Russia’s main manner on exporting oil and evading western sanctions in order to generate funds needed to continue its invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian Navy actions could be in response to the Estonian action of halting the tanker Kiwala of the Shadow Fleet for two weeks in April. The tanker was intercepted on April 11th as it was heading to the Russian port of Ust-Luga and then temporarily detained at Muuga Bay, east of Tallin, on the grounds that the tanker was not compliant to navigational and environmental safety. On April 26th, after having taking the necessary actions to remedy over 40 deficiencies found during the inspection by the Estonians, the tanker was cleared to continue its journey.
The Russian Navy responded by holding a large scale exercise on April 23rd in the Baltic Sea aimed to train the Baltic Fleet in protecting Russian commercial shipping in this region and be able to provide assistance to commercial vessels. This exercise had a focus on repelling simulated hostile warships and submarines from approaching Russian commercial vessels as well as train the Baltic Fleet in assisting firefighting and damage control operations on board of commercial vessels. This training exercise could have been the first steps in getting the Russian Navy to offer protection to the tankers belonging to the Shadow Fleet and protect them from being intercepted and detained by Western navies.
Recent actions suggest that Russia is expanding its escort operation beyond the Baltic Sea. Recently, a Russian warship returning from a missing to West-Africa, reportedly escorted two sanctioned tankers of the Shadow Fleet as they passed through the English Channel. These tankers were identified as the Sierra and the Naxos.
The tanker Naxos reportedly lingered at the Western entrance of the English Channel for two days before being joined by the Steregushchy class corvette RFS Boiky and the tanker Sierra around June 16th. All three vessels then passed through the English Channel simultaneously. The RFS Boiky reportedly had changed her AIS signal several days earlier and was transmitting that she was a fishing vessel in order to mask her identity. The transit through the English Channel was completed on June 22nd, though all three vessels remained close to each other until they reached the Danish Strait where the tankers split and took different routes to enter the Baltic Sea. RFS Boiky itself was observed entering the Baltic Sea on June 23rd.
The actions undertaken by the RFS Boiky suggest that Russia is starting to expand its escort capabilities for Shadow Fleet tankers to areas beyond the Baltic Sea, most notably the North Sea and the English Channel. Though so far only the action of the RFS Boiky has been observed, it can not be ignored as it is a further escalation with regards to actions related to the Shadow Fleet. As Western countries take more concrete actions in the form of sanctions, direct action such as undertaken by Estonia during April, whereby tankers of the Shadow Fleet are stopped and detained become a more realistic possibility.
Russia might already be one step ahead if it start to escort these tankers beyond the Baltic Sea. The presence of a Russian warship means that any boarding action by western navies increases the possibility of further escalations with the Russians. As such, the presence of Russian warships near Shadow Fleet tankers could be enough to prevent western countries from taking a direct action against the Shadow Fleet.
Russian escort duties are not without risks and can lead to negative effects for the combat readiness of the Russian Navy. Escorting the Shadow Fleet in earnest in the Baltic and North Seas, as well as the English Channel, would result in an increased use of the surface warships in service with the Baltic Fleet which in turn results in an increase in wear and tear and the need for maintenance and repairs. With Russian shipyards already struggling to construct and repair vessels in time, the additional need for maintenance could lead to several warships being out of service for a long period as they await their turn for repair and maintenance in already struggling shipyards.
A possible means to solve these potential problems in the long run could be the influx of Northern Fleet warships in the area in order to bolster the Baltic Fleet and make more platforms available for escort duties. Already an increase in Northern Fleet activity in the Baltic Sea has been observed in recent weeks with a deployment of the Gorshkov class frigate RFS Admiral Kasatanov and the recent arrival of the Udaloy class destroyer RFS Vice-Admiral Kulakov which arrived at Baltysk on June 29th. So far, these vessels of the Northern Fleet have yet to be reported escorting Shadow Fleet tankers.
