Sweden’s next-generation A26 Blekinge-class submarine programme has been hit by another major delay and soaring costs, pushing the first delivery to 2031 and raising total expenses to 25 billion SEK (2.3 billion EUR).
The Swedish A26 Blekinge-class submarine programme has suffered another significant delay and cost overrun. The programme dates back to a 2010 decision by the Swedish government to replace the two Södermanland-class submarines, then with a planned delivery during 2018 and 2019. The firm order for two new submarine came in 2015 with a total programme cost of 8.4 Bn SEK at 2014 cost levels (inflation adjusted to 11.2 Bn SEK or 1.0 Bn EUR) and deliveries in 2022 to 2024. This was however resting on securing an export order no later than June 2019 with an international partner able to take on part of the cost.
With no such order having been secured to date, the class still rests at only the two submarines ordered for Sweden, and as such, the budget was adjusted in 2021 with additional orders to a total of 14 Bn SEK (17.1 Bn SEK inflation adjusted or 1.6 Bn EUR) and the delivery was pushed back to 2027 and 2028. Following this, one of the two Södermanland-class submarines was mothballed in 2021 with the other undergoing a deeper maintenance to extend its service life up to 2028, which would see it serve an even 40 years. This week news broke that Saab and the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) has renegotiated further, with the current budget now at 25 Bn SEK (2.3 Bn EUR) and deliveries in 2031 and 2033.
Part of the delay is argued to be related to the poor state of the Kockums submarine yard, which has not built a new submarine since the Gotland-class delivered in the mid-1990’s. As such, while know-how has been retained to some extent thanks to design work on the Australian Collins-class, the upgrade of the Västergötland-class to the new Södermanland-class and to the Singaporean Archer-class respectively, and the Gotland-class MLU, a certain amount of delays and struggles with restarting production of a new class was to be expected. Still, the delivery time has now slipped from seven to 15 years between contract signing and first delivery, while the budget has more than doubled.
This last delay is particularly difficult to swallow, as the political guidelines from the powerful Swedish Defence Commission (Försvarsberedningen) in their report on the future of Swedish defence in April 2024 took a stern view that further delays and cost overruns were unacceptable as that would impact both the submarine force and other naval development programmes. The commission serve as the forum to reach as broad a consensus as possible on Sweden’s defence and security policy between all parties in parliament, and as such the recommendations are usually implemented and not impacted by changes in government.
Another major issue is that the Commission foresee a need to replace the Gotland-class with new submarines, starting in 2038. This means that design and production resources of the yard need to be shifted to that programme at some point starting in the next five years, with the latest A26 delays potentially threatening this schedule as well.
