Ukraine has pushed the Russian Navy into a largely passive stance in the Black Sea in recent months. This was in sharp contrast to the beginning of the war when they dominated the area.
In the past few days there has been a significant change in the pattern however. Today the Black Sea near Sebastopol was busy with submarines and warships.
Open sources, including analysis of Sentinel 2 satellite imagery from the European Space Agency, shows the increased activity. When the Sentinel 2 satellite passed over at 10:47 am local time there were a number of ships outside the harbor. These included a Kilo Class submarine which appeared to be returning to base.
Submarine Activity
Four of Russia’s Improved-Kilo class submarines are currently based in the Black Sea. They are used to launch Kalibr cruise missiles against Ukraine. It appears that they now operate from Sevastopol when active for missile strikes, possibly to simplify reloading. And from the comparative safety of Novorossiysk when not.
The submarine is seen being escorted by a fast boat, likely a Raptor assault boat, and a helicopter, likely a Mi-8 Hip. These are to protect against Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), also known as maritime drones. Ukraine previously attacked ships with these on October 29 and while none were sunk, the Russian Navy takes the threat very seriously.
This level of activity has not been seen in weeks. Ships and submarines do still come and go, but the frequency has increased.
An Impending Military Operation?
It is unclear why the Russian Navy has suddenly increased activity. Possibly it is political and reacting to the narrative that they have withdrawn to the safety of their bases. Possibly it is a sign of Russia’s military reaction to President Zelensky’s visit to Washington. It is possible that we will see more Kalibr missile strikes.
However there are a number of scenarios where this may happen. Moldova recently warned that it saw an increased threat of an amphibious landing to attempt to create a land bridge to Transnistria. Alternatively Russia may be anticipating a Ukrainian advance south from Kherson towards Crimea.
One of the ships observed sailing north appears to be a repair ship (or it may be an intelligence ship or similar type). These auxiliaries can be important to support combat operations. So one leaving Sevastopol, heading towards the relative protection of a river in northern Crimea, may be a leading indicator of larger operations.
