According to documents released by the Japanese MoD, the following four contracts were signed with MHI:
・Mass production of upgraded Type 12 SSM (ground-launched version): 173.4 billion yen (1,295 million dollars)
・Development of upgraded Type 12 SSM (ground/air/ship-launched version): 26.9 billion yen (200 million dollars)
・Mass production of Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile (HVGP): 119.4 billion yen (891.8 million dollars)
・Development of Submarine-launched guided missile: 58.4 billion yen (436 million dollars)
Upgraded Type 12 SSM
The upgraded Type12 SSM is scheduled to enter mass production (in its ground launched version) in 2023, with delivery in FY2026. In addition, ship-launched and air-launched versions are scheduled to remain in development until FY2026 and FY2028, respectively, with mass production and deployment to follow. Currently, the Type 12 SSM has a range of 200 km, but the upgraded Type 12 SSM will first improve the range to 900 km and eventually to 1,500 km, while enhancing its stealth capability.
HVGP
The HVGP is a weapon that attacks enemies invading remote islands with glide warheads that fly at supersonic/hypersonic speeds. The HVGP was initially planned to be developed in two phases: an early-equipment version (Block 1), which is currently under development, and a capability-enhanced version (Block 2) based on the early-equipment version.
However, according to a document released by the MOD in December 2022, the development of Block 1 will continue, but Block 2 has been cancelled, and instead, the development of Block 2A/2B, which aims to significantly extend the range, is specified. The contract announced this time is for Block 1, which is scheduled to start mass production in 2023 and be delivered in FY2026 and 2027. Its range is estimated to be about 500~900 km.
Blocks 2A and 2B, on the other hand, are expected to have very large bodies. In the published image, Block 1 has two missiles mounted on a track-type launcher, while Blocks 2A/2B have one missile mounted on a track-towed launcher. The range is expected to be about 2,000 km for Block 2A and about 3,000 km or more for Block 2B, respectively. Block 2A and Block 2B are expected to be developed from FY2023 to FY2027 and FY2023 to FY2030, respectively, followed by rapid deployment.
According to the “Defense Buildup program” published by the MOD in December 2022, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) plans to establish two units to operate these HVGPs. One is the “HVGP Battalion” that operates HVGP Block 1, and the other is the “long-range guided missile units” that operates Block 2A/2B. According to reports in Japan, the former is supposed to be deployed in Kyushu in southern Japan and the latter in Hokkaido in the north.
Submarine-launched guided missile
The future Submarine-launched guided missile is a long-range missile that can be launched from the torpedo tubes of submarines operated by the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). The JSMDF currently deploys the Harpoon as its submarine-launched anti-ship missile, but this new missile aims to attack enemy naval vessels and other vessels from outside the enemy’s anti-submarine defense screen by extending the range of the missile significantly. The missile will be developed between FY2023 and FY2027.
Although details of this missile have not yet been revealed, it is likely that it will be based on the Type 12 SSM, as MHI will be in charge of its development. However, the submarine’s torpedo tube has a standard diameter of 533 mm, which limits the size of the missile in this regard. Apart from this, the MOD is planning to build a new submarine equipped with a VLS, but it is assumed that this submarine will deploy much larger missiles since the restrictions regarding the diameter of missiles will be eliminated.
Standoff Missiles to improve deterrence against China
These missiles, which the MOD classifies as “standoff missiles,” have a significantly longer range than any missiles the JSDF has ever operated. Standoff missiles are weapons that attack enemy naval vessels that have invaded remote islands from a safe distance, and are also utilized for counter-strike capabilities as part of Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD), including against targets located inside the territory of other country.
In particular, these weapons are designed with deterrence against China in mind. Currently, the changing situation regarding Taiwan has increased the need for Japan to defend its southwestern islands, including the Senkaku Islands. However, the range of missiles currently in service with the SDF was insufficient, and the decision was therefore made to rapidly advance the deployment of standoff missiles.
A unique feature of Japanese standoff missiles is that they operate from a variety of land, sea, and air platforms. This increases wartime survivability compared to operating on a single platform. In addition, the need to monitor multiple assets also places a heavy burden on the adversary’s ISR capabilities, thereby making an effective response difficult. In addition, mobile ground-based missiles are particularly difficult to detect, and Japan’s territory, which stretches 3,000 kilometers from east to west, north to south, is heavily shielded by the JSDF’s air defense systems, making it extremely difficult for the enemy to attack.
Furthermore, the upgraded Type 12 SSM will be deployed to SSM regiments in the JGSDF from FY2027 or later, and will be especially important equipment for units deployed to the southwestern islands. Currently, the JGSDF deploys five SSM regiments, and with regard to the defense of the southwestern area, one regiment (the 5th SSM Regiment) and one battery (304th SSM battery) is deployed in Kyushu and three batteries in the Nansei Islands (301th, 302nd, and 303rd SSM battery). Furthermore, a new regiment (the 7th SSM Regiment) will be formed in Okinawa in FY2023 to unite these four SSM batteries.
These SSM regiments are capable of saturation attacks against enemy naval vessels. Furthermore, when combined with the Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) and Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) currently being fielded in the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC), it will effectively deter Chinese naval vessels. NMESIS has strong lethality through the use of Naval Strike Missile (NSM), an SSM with superior stealth, but sacrifices the number of missiles per vehicle to obtain superior mobility and low signature. Therefore, JSDF standoff missiles, including the Type 12 SSM, will be the solution to the gap faced by the U.S. military.